Supreme Novices Update 2012/13: Court Minstrel and Dodging Bullets

With the first Cheltenham meeting already done with, I felt it appropriate to begin this season’s quest to identify the premier two-mile novice hurdler of the season. Sadly, for many like-minded individuals including myself, last season’s version, Simonsig, ended up running over 2m5f in The Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle. Again, this season I would prefer to see Simonsig displaying his undoubted prowess at two miles over hurdles but once again it seems I will be, to some extent, disappointed as Nicky Henderson is apparently leaning towards a chasing campaign. While I fully expect the former point-to-pointer to be ultra-successful over fences it is a shame that he is unlikely to be aimed at the Champion Hurdle, a race that looks his for the taking.

Unsurprisingly, Nicky Henderson has yet another strong team of prospective novice hurdlers this term but it was Evan Williams and Paul Nicholls who supplied this weekend’s early (very early) Supreme Novices contenders.

Lemington Maiden Hurdle

At Cheltenham on Friday twelve horses went to post in what appeared to be a competitive novices’ hurdle. The favourite was Population who had twice won bumpers impressively at Ascot before finishing sixth in the Aintree Champion bumper. However, it was a horse that finished two places in front of Population at Aintree that took the race and he won it impressively.

Court Minstrel had shown progressive form in bumpers prior to his Aintree fourth. Following a convincing victory at Ludlow, he finished a close second (also at Ludlow) to Tistory. Tistory will surely be one of Nicky Henderson’s most exciting novice hurdlers this season and Court Minstrel was arguably an unlucky loser in a contest where the front pair pulled well clear of the third. This was the first indication of the significant ability he possessed. Another return to Ludlow saw him pull off an eleven length demolition of his rivals and connections of this attractive son of Court Cave were understandably tempted by Aintree.

At Aintree Evan Williams’ charge was held up early in nineteenth of nineteen before gradually making his way through the pack to look threatening before not quite seeing out the 2m1f trip. In the end it turned into a stamina test with The New One, a potentially exceptional staying hurdler, coming out on top.

On that form Court Minstrel had every right to win Friday’s race and he did so in a manner which suggested he could be in contention for the big prize come March. As is his style, Court Minstrel was again dropped out in last place by Paul Moloney. Jumping neatly throughout, Court Minstrel travelled noticeably strongly, even on occasion pulling for his head, and soon after jumping the fourth last his rider let out an inch of rein to move through a swiftly closing gap. This was potentially the most impressive part of the race as he had passed four horses in just a couple of strides. From then on Paul Moloney kept having to pull him back in order to contain his effort for the finish and he remained firmly on the bridle until shaken up just after the last at which point he stormed up the Cheltenham hill pulling nearly 4 lengths clear of The Romford Pele.

This was as encouraging a hurdling debut as one could expect. He looks to have plenty of scope and there must be significant improvement in him as he is still struggling to completely settle. A large field and fast pace are likely to be his optimum conditions but as he gains experience he should become more amenable. There is the danger of overrating this performance as on face value it looks to be more about style than substance. His main rival in the race was supposed to be Population but his rider, Denis O’Regan, was unhappy some way out and he had to be pulled up with something clearly amiss. The Romford Pele had marked himself out as a good prospect with a seventh place finish in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, just one place behind the winner of Aintree’s equivalent The New One, but he had been beaten at odds-on at Market Rasen on hurdling debut and at Cheltenham he handed any advantage he had over to Court Minstrel with a sloppy jump at the last. In third was Titan De Sarti, who has largely been disappointing in his career to date and merely stayed on here suggesting a step up in trip is the next logical step.

Despite the lack of substance, the style of Court Minstrel’s win was particularly exciting and the strength of his bumper form suggests he is certainly a novice hurdler worth bearing in mind for the Supreme as the season progresses.

Masterson Holdings Hurdle

In contrast to the jumps bred Court Minstrel, who had learnt his trade in bumpers, Dodging Bullets was bred by Frankie Dettori for the flat. By Dubawi, he was in training with Andrew Oliver where he managed to win twice on the level before being bought to go juvenile hurdling. Placed in the care of champion trainer Paul Nicholls he had three runs last season, showing distinct promise in two of them, and his trainer had described him as the best maiden hurdler in training.

On his hurdling debut in the Grade 2 Dovecote at Kempton Dodging Bullets came up against Grumeti, a leading Triumph Hurdle fancy at the time he had already won twice and fallen once when victory was certain. Dodging Bullets finished only 1½ lengths behind Grumeti in the end having shown signs of his evident inexperience. His second start was at the Cheltenham Festival in the Triumph Hurdle where he showed the benefit of his first race over hurdles by finishing fourth, only a head behind Grumeti this time. He travelled well before only failing for lack of stamina in the gruelling test that last season’s Triumph became. It is sensible to ignore his final start of last season at Aintree as he was badly hampered and was possibly feeling the effects of a long flat season in 2011 followed by three relatively quick hard races over hurdles.

He has been leading fancy for the 2013 Supreme Novices ever since and his seasonal debut was highly anticipated. He was heavily backed on his first start over hurdles out of graded company, and in a sense he delivered what he promised with an emphatic 8 length win but there are niggling doubts left over him.

During the first part of the race Dodging Bullets pulled hard but that is understandable as he is still lightly raced over hurdles and this was a small field which was taken along at a slow pace. As the race developed and the pace quickened he eventually settled ok in behind the leading pair of Hi Note and second favourite Baby Mix. On the whole he jumped fluently but at the fourth last he was slow and suddenly there appeared to be a significant gap between him and the leaders. For a brief moment he looked in trouble but Ruby Walsh asked for extra effort and Dodging Bullets responded well. From then on each time Ruby asked Dodging Bullets to make ground he did so quickly. He reached the last upsides Hi Note, took it well, and powered clear up the hill. Paul Nicholls was keen to point out after the race that this four-year-old Dubawi gelding had had a breathing operation over the summer and would improve for the run.

The principle danger to Dodging Bullets beforehand looked to be Baby Mix but he again finished tamely into third having travelled well. He was giving Dodging Bullets 8lbs and may have needed the run but there must be serious concerns over his temperament and or soundness now. The second placed Hi Note is a tough, improving filly over hurdles and the form of her recent Stratford romp was boosted at Kempton on Sunday but one would hope that in future Dodging Bullets would be capable of brushing her aside more easily if he is to take high rank amongst the novice hurdlers. He had to be pushed by Ruby Walsh to make ground a number of times during the race and for him to be thought of as a really strong Supreme contender I would prefer to see him make these moves on the bridle. He may have hit a flat spot on Saturday, such a characteristic could be terminal in higher quality contests, but this may also just be a fitness issue, as Nicholls pointed out he should “be better for the experience”, in which case it is important not to judge him too harshly on the somewhat laboured style of this victory. Dodging Bullets may look a completely different proposition on his next start.