Underestimation is something I am far less guilty of than
overestimation. I can easily get too excited about a horse that impresses, go
overboard with a taking performance, but it is more unusual for me to be overly
negative about a horse with major Cheltenham Festival pretensions. Last season,
while he was a solid horse with strong bumper form and a sequence of relatively
impressive wins over hurdles, I couldn’t believe Cinders And Ashes would be
good enough to win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. There was no reason to think he
was incapable of making the frame, I just assumed, from what I had seen, that
there would be a couple of classier candidates able to see him off up the
Cheltenham hill. This season I appear to be in a similar situation with Melodic
Rendezvous as, so far, he has done little to put one off expecting a big show
in March, but I can’t see him having the pace or the class to take the main
prize, whether that be the Supreme or the Neptune.
On Saturday, Melodic Rendezvous
took the step up to grade 1 company over hurdles in his stride, running out a
convincing winner of the Tolworth Hurdle. His grade 1 bumper form augured well
but his starting price and position in the market (only third favourite) suggested
that many, including myself, were expecting a different outcome. When
discussing Melodic Rendezvous’ last race I had been very positive about runner up, Royal Boy. With the extra
experience from that first run over hurdles behind him I had expected the form to
be reversed with Jeremy Scott’s charge, and that seemed to be the general
consensus seeing as Royal Boy started the 5/2 favourite. However, Melodic
Rendezvous never looked in much danger of defeat on Saturday, with Royal Boy a
well beaten third. Receiving a nice lead from Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old, Melodic
Rendezvous settled comfortably in about fourth for most of the journey. His
jumping was slick and economical, there was no semblance of an error and this
is clearly a strength especially when one compares his jumping to those around
him in the Supreme market. As Royal Boy weakened rapidly, he picked up well
between the final two obstacles and from the half furlong pole Nick Schofield
asked him to pull away from Pendra and the Where Or When gelding responded in
good style. There is much to like about Melodic Rendezvous, he is tough, has a
willing attitude, he clearly stays well and it is hard to argue that he wasn’t
comfortably the best horse at Sandown. The question is whether that is hugely
significant in terms of the Supreme Novices hurdle.
In the run up to Saturday’s race, the Tolworth looked a
reasonably strong renewal and if Court Minstrel and Royal Boy had, in my view,
ran anywhere near their previous levels of form then it would be hard to knock
such a performance but I am quite convinced they did not. Melodic Rendezvous’
previous runs were
not strong enough in form terms to suggest he was a Cheltenham Festival winner in
waiting, particularly his debut run over hurdles where he finished behind Mr
Mole. He is definitely improving, some would say rapidly, but even having won
this grade 1 he is still yet to show me enough to suggest he is the Cheltenham
candidate that his lofty antepost market positions suggest.
In second at Sandown was Pendra, admittedly four-and-a-half-lengths away, who has not shown enough
to mark him out as a serious grade 1 contender. Since he ran away with his
bumper Charlie Longsdon’s five-year-old has advertised his novice hurdle
credentials with two wins from two starts, both at Plumpton, but his run prior
to the Tolworth Hurdle was a three-and-three-quarter-lengths defeat of
Workbench, trained by Paul Nicholls. Pendra took his time in putting that race
to bed and I am sure Nicholls would have Workbench way down his novice hurdle
pecking order.
Pendra already looks the sort who will improve for further,
having attempted to make the running on Saturday in order to make use of his
apparent stamina, and his ideal trip will surely prove to be nearer three miles
than two. He was not simply brushed aside by Melodic Rendezvous either as, aided
by Noel Fehily’s urgings, Pendra battled for much of the run in, whereas one
would expect a serious candidate for Cheltenham to dismiss this future chaser
with more authority than the winner did. It is fair to say the ground was extremely
testing at Sandown and that would have contributed to Pendra’s performance
while hampering the efforts of a classier Melodic Rendezvous. The emphasis
became far more on stamina and that points to a step up in trip for Melodic
Rendezvous but his impressive trainer, Jeremy Scott, is aiming more towards the
Supreme having proved effective not only over two miles, but also at Cheltenham.
If Melodic Rendezvous does improve for the better ground one
assumes he will face in March, as his trainer and jockey have stated on
numerous occasions, then it is possible that we are a distance away from seeing
his true ability. His record suggests that he handles testing ground, in fact
he may well thrive on it having run so well behind Champagne Fever at
Punchestown on, near enough, waterlogged ground. In two grade ones on heavy
ground he has finished second and first while his only defeat over hurdles to
date was on good-to-soft ground. He might just be the horse to look to in a
heavy ground Supreme, these are the only conditions in which I could entertain
backing him, but this would also encourage some of those contemplating the
Neptune to drop down in trip, providing Melodic Rendezvous with an even tougher
test. As nice as it is to see a different trainer competing with the National
Hunt juggernauts, I am yet to see the zip and class necessary to get me excited
about his Cheltenham prospects but then I felt exactly the same way about
Cinders And Ashes last season.
For many the disappointment of Saturday’s race was Poet. There was a widely held belief
that Poet was ultra impressive on his hurdling debut and that his flat class
would inevitably result in him becoming a high class hurdler. I thought he was
all out at Newbury to defeat, the subsequently beaten, Veloce and there was
this myth about his ‘brilliant’ jumping, which looked no more than adequate to
me. Poet ran as well as I expected he would on Saturday and, while this was an
admirably ambitious target, if he is to make a mark over hurdles it will have
to be at a much lower level.
The disappointment of the race for me in the Tolworth was
the aforementioned favourite, Royal Boy.
Last time, at
Cheltenham, he was just trapped in behind the rest of the field just as the
pace quickened. Once he found his passage up the rail Royal Boy was running
down Melodic Rendezvous all the way to the line. It looked as if inexperience
and a slight lack of pace cost him. A grade 1 on his second start under rules
was always going to be a tall order but he had looked so promising at
Cheltenham it was hoped, and in my case expected, that he would reverse the
placings with Melodic Rendezvous. Unfortunately for his supporters, the exuberant
jumping display was nowhere to be found. Conscious that he had been found
wanting for pace at the death last time, Geraghty (on board Royal Boy) set out
to be handy, if not make the running, in order to ensure that he was in the
ideal position were it to turn into a sprint, having been left behind on debut.
For a horse in need of the experience this tactic plainly backfired as he was
still rather green while his jumping was abominable, losing ground at nearly
every hurdle before he capitulated after second last. He still finished third,
gaining invaluable experience, and in future with different tactics employed,
preferably over further, he could still be a potent force in novice hurdles.
The final word goes to Court
Minstrel who had the best form coming into Saturday’s race, having been
impressive on his first start at Cheltenham and unlucky on his second behind Dodging Bullets and River Maigue. There were concerns expressed by his trainer, Evan
Williams, that he may not handle the heavy ground and these concerns were borne
out. He again travelled strongly through the race and came with a menacing run,
along with the winner, on the approach to the second last but after being
hemmed in for a few strides, his effort petered out tamely. A tired leap at the
last nearly saw him come down, giving away third spot in the process. He is
still a very useful novice hurdler, if not significantly better, and it would
be folly to write him off just yet. His ideal conditions are relatively quick
ground and a big field, until we see him face those he will be difficult to
judge. Evan Williams seems to be favouring a go at a festival handicap in March
and who could blame him? These defeats in unsuitable conditions can only land
him on a very favourable mark.
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